Tariff ruling: Will consumers, companies get refunds?
By Karen Hanna
President Trump has teased the possibility of rebate checks for consumers, paid for by tariffs. On Feb. 20, in his dissent of the U.S. Supreme Court’s majority opinion striking down a major set of tariffs, Justice Brett Kavanaugh warned any process to refund the duties could get messy.
But will anyone really get money back?
While the subject remains for courts and Congress to decide, after the Supreme Court punted in its 6-3 ruling, opinions already are forming.
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"Incredible uncertainty" remains as impact of the court's decision is still being determined and additional duties are on the way.
According to the U.S. government, the Trump administration collected nearly $135 billion in tariffs levied without congressional approval under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) — the particular duties struck down by the Supreme Court.
Among efforts so far to return the monies is a bill brought forth in the U.S. Senate on Feb. 23 by more than 20 Democrats, called the Tariff Refund Act of 2026, which would require a full refund, with interest. Democrats in the U.S. House introduced a similar bill, called the Payback Act.
Laurie Harbour, a partner at Wipfli and longtime consultant to manufacturers, who has been critical of tariffs, wants the money back.
And then there’s Lincoln, R.I.-based Windmoeller & Hoelscher Corp., which in an email, made a pledge to do what it can.
"Our legal counsel has been engaged to ensure we are positioned to receive any applicable refunds. Should tariff monies be returned to us, they will be passed directly back to you.
"In the meantime, and as long as U.S. Customs continues to collect tariffs upon entry into the U.S., our status remains unchanged. Any necessary adjustments will be made as soon as the situation becomes clear," read the email, signed by Andrew Wheeler, president of the company, which sells film extrusion machinery made by its parent company in Germany.
In a Feb. 12 blog post for the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, economist Sebastian Heise and researchers Mary Amiti, Chris Flanagan and David E. Weinstein, found that importers paid the vast majority of duties imposed from January 2024 through November 2025; an earlier report found that the pass-through rate was 100 percent, with importers bearing all the costs on goods imported into the U.S. between 2018 and 2019.
However, Heise, Amiti, Flanagan and Weinstein wrote, while 94 percent of tariffs were borne by importers in the first eight months of the latest period to be studied, foreign exporters over the last few months have begun bearing slightly more costs, by lowering their margins to reduce the effective prices paid for goods at ports of entry.
“We're talking about billions of dollars here, and so I really do not see the government making some fell swoop to refund people,” Harbour said.
The dollar amounts have her hoping for refunds, however difficult it might be to calculate them.
“We would love it. I don't know what it would look like,” she said.
“I just don't have any faith that it's going to happen anytime soon,” Harbour said.
About the Author
Karen Hanna
Senior Staff Reporter
Senior Staff Reporter Karen Hanna covers injection molding, molds and tooling, processors, workforce and other topics, and writes features including In Other Words and Problem Solved for Plastics Machinery & Manufacturing, Plastics Recycling and The Journal of Blow Molding. She has more than 15 years of experience in daily and magazine journalism.
